Humans are probably mainly responsible for climate change, and are definitely contributing to it. But now things may be out of our control!
These days, almost everybody agrees that the climate is warming. If you do not agree, look at the two graphs below and you will change your mind. (Please keep in mind that these graphs measure worldwide temperature differences from historical averages, not how high the temperatures are or have been.)
However, some people believe that human emitted greenhouse gases are not causing climate change. so why should governments spend a fortune subsidizing new energy sources?
In my opinion, after great study as detailed below, recent climate channge is at least partly, and probably mainly, by human caused greenhouse gases. Any alternative theory must explain why temperatures stayed within a less than one degree C range for eight thousand years, but has been rising rapidly since mid-19th century industrialization — by 1.8º C (3.2º F) as of this writing.
Those who reject greenhouse gases as a cause of climate change, cite other causes. Having studied every non-greenhouse-gas alternative cause that I know of, I cannot find one that holds up scientifically. You will find these discussed in the scientific sections of this website, including changes in the earth’s orbit, location in the galaxy, the sun’d radiation, ocean currents, undersea magma, forest destruction, and volcanos.
Additionally, satellites confirm that greenhouse gases are increasingly insulating the earth. For one thing, the atmosphere above the greenhouse insulating layer is becoming colder — that is, less heat in now passing through the greenhouse layer of the atmosmhere. For another, measures now measure less heat escaping from our planet than is being received from the sun.
In my opinion, the above facts are definitive; There’s no need to consider anything else. However, let us look at the counter arguments against greenhouse gases.
First, some have claimed that the Covid lockdown proved that humans are not contributing to climate change. However, human CO2 emissions are only about 8 % of plant and microbial emissions1 which vary more than this from year to year. While human emissions add to the average yearly increases in CO2 emissions, natural causes are almost entirely responsible for the yearly fluctuations. A 7% reduction of human emissions during COVID is far too tiny to be detected against the base of natural fluctuations. Yearly CO2 additions to the atmosphere are increasing in line with increased fossil fuel use.
Second, those who say humans have not a cause of climate change also argue that climate temperatures have fluctuated in the last 8,000 years more than recently. Those who make this argument pick on data from one (or another) location of the earth, or measurement method. The first graph below shows that when the different locations are averaged together, there has been very little temperature change. Furthermore, no measurement method in the last 12,000 years shows and increase as high as we have now, and none for the last 2,000 years before 1900 shows an increase of more than 0.4 degrees C.
Third, opponents of CO2 as a cause of climate change argue that data of the last 500 million years proves that CO2 is not a cause, that CO2 doesn’t correlate with temperature, or that CO2 has followed temperature changes. However, proponents of CO2 as the cause of climate change use the same data to argue that CO2 is the cause!!! In my opinion, since, we do not know all the conditions of the past 500 million years, we should ignore these pro and con arguments .We do know what is measured today.
Fourth, opponents of CO2 argue that CO2 levels since 1852 have not correlated with fluctuating temperatures. This is true if you do not adjust the data for changes in air pollution, which has a big effect. Once you adjust the data, they correlate.
Fifth, opponents of opponents of greenhouse gases as the cause argue that science makes it impossible for there to be a greenhouse house effect, or from CO2, or that the effect was saturated long ago. Ninety-five percent of climates would disagree. And as mentioned above satellites prove that the atmosphere above the greenhouse layer has been getting colder. While there are other greenhouse gases, CO2 has the largest effect by far.
Below are two graphs2 3showing how temperatures held steady for thousands of year, but have shot up by 1.1 C to 2016 and another 0.3º C as of this writing. The colored lines on the first chart are using different locations and methods. Today’s temperature higher than the maximum of any line on the first chart! The satellite measurements of the second chart are different than average surface trends only in details.
As of this writing, despite all the publicity and efforts, on balance, worldwide, humans are helping accelerate climate change by adding more greenhouse gases than ever. I discuss this here: Are we slowing climate change?
Recently, greenhouse gases are not the only cause of climate change. The causes of climate change.
